Gas for Climate consortium introduces a study on Market State and Trends in renewable and low-carbon gases in Europe

Release date: December 8, 2023

With the EU aiming for a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and a complete decarbonization by 2050, the report emphasizes the need for extensive investment in energy efficiency, renewable energy, and low-carbon technologies, and transport and storage infrastructure.

In various reports over the past years, the Gas for Climate consortium has shown that a decarbonised European energy system will be based on the interplay between renewable electricity and renewable and low-carbon gases to supply all sectors with energy at the lowest possible societal cost, while preserving the security and reliability of the energy system. REPowerEU, as a reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine only emphasized this. Policy and market actions are required to achieve the rapid scale-up and integration of renewable and low carbon gases across Europe.

This edition of the Market State and Trends report is an addition to the 2020 and 2021 reports, highlighting the most relevant market developments of the past two years. Next to the trends for biomethane and hydrogen, this report for the first time also covers CO2. It focuses on the market trends that were highlighted in the past reports and looks ahead to innovation and technology for all three gases showcasing upcoming developments.

Main highlights include: 

  • Biomethane: biomethane plays a key role in diversifying gas supply sources, boosting EU energy independence and reducing exposure to natural gas prices volatility. The European Commission targets 35 billion cubic meters (bcm) of biomethane production within the EU by 2030.
  • Hydrogen economy: the EU should focus on developing interconnected European hydrogen infrastructure such as transport pipelines to strengthen its market. At the same time storage sites and improved ports infrastructures are fundamental to enable long-distance shipping of hydrogen and derivatives.
  • CCUS Synergies: timely and coordinated action between the private sector and governments can catalyse the deployment of CCUS projects towards reaching the 50 Mt/y CO2 injection target by 2030 as part of the Net Zero
  • Policy Perspective: a clear and solid regulatory foundation is pivotal for the transparent, rapid, and fair accelerated ramp-up of renewable and low-carbon gases.

Read the full publication here.

Read the report

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  1. Sequential cropping is the cultivation of a second crop before or after the harvest of main food or feed crop on the same agricultural land during an otherwise fallow period. Sequential cropping does not impact existing food or feed markets as no existing food or feed is used for biogas.
  2. The deployment of energy crops should be prioritised on abandoned and degraded land.
  3. Municipal solid waste is first pre-processed into refuse derived fuel (RDF). Non-combustible materials such as glass and metals are removed from the waste, leaving biogenic material and plastics.
  4. Gas for Climate (2021), The future role of biomethane (Link)
  5. Dutch TTF natural gas price (Link)
  6. Gas for Climate (2021), The future role of biomethane (Link)
  7. EBA (2021), Gasification – A Sustainable Technology for Circular Economies (Link)
  8. Gas for Climate (2021), The future role of biomethane (Link)
  9. Biomethane replaces mainly natural gas, with a lifecycle emission of about 75 g CO2eq/MJ, and partially diesel (and other fuels) with a lifecycle emission of 95 g CO2eq/MJ or above.
  10. 350 TWh on basis of gross calorific value equals 315 TWh on basis of net calorific value, or 1,134 PJ. The 100 g CO2eq/MJ emission reduction is expressed on basis of Lower Heating Value (=net calorific value). 1,134 PJ * 97 g/MJ = 113 Mtonne CO2eq emissions avoided.
  11. IEA Bioenergy (2020): Production of food grade sustainable CO2 from a large biogas facility (Link)
  12. Based on current EU average salaries in this sector
  13. Gas for Climate (2022) Biomethane production potentials in the EU (Link)
  14. Gas for Climate (2022) Biomethane production potentials in the EU (Link)
  15. European Commission (2018). In-depth analysis in support of the Commission Communication COM (2018) 773. A Clean Planet for all. A European long-term strategic vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy.
  16. Eurostat (2022) Natural gas supply statistics (Link)
  17. Gas for Climate (2022) Biomethane production potentials in the EU (Link)
  18. European Commission (2022), Commission Staff Working Document, SWD(2022) 230 final, Implementing the REPowerEU Action Plan: Investment needs, hydrogen accelerator, and achieving the bio-methane targets (Link)
  1. Eurostat (2020), Final energy consumption by sector, EU, 2020 (Link)
  2. Feedstocks refer to raw materials fed into a process for conversion into another product
  3. The Guardian (2021), Why it’s so hard to electrify shipping and aviation (Link)
  4. Commission (2020), Energy efficiency in buildings (Link)
  5. Eurostat (2020), Final energy consumption in the residential sector by use (Link)
  6. Gas for Climate (2019), The optimal role for gas in a net-zero emissions energy system (Link)
  7. DG ENER (2018) Request for services n° ENER/B2/2018-260 – Potentials of sector coupling for the EU natural gas sector – Assessing regulatory barriers.
  8. Sector coupling: how can it be enhanced in the EU to foster grid stability and decarbonise? (Link)
  9. European Commission (2020). A hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral Europe (Link)
  10. European Commission (2022). Commission Staff Working Document, SWD (2022) 230 final, Implementing the REPowerEU Action Plan: Investment needs, hydrogen accelerator, and achieving the bio-methane targets (Link)
  11. Gas for Climate recently assesses the options the facilitate the 10 Mt import target by 2030. Gas for Climate (2022), Facilitating hydrogen imports from non-EU countries (Link)
  12. Gas for Climate (2022) Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission system (Link)
  13. Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission infrastructure (Link)
  14. Guidehouse (2020) European Hydrogen Backbone (Link)
  15. Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission infrastructure (Link)
  16. Recharge (2022). ‘From niche to scale’ | EU launches €3bn European Hydrogen Bank with a bang but keeps quiet about the details (accessed in September 2022). (Link)
  17. Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission infrastructure (Link)
  18. Gas Infrastructure Europe (2021). Picturing the value of underground gas storage to the European hydrogen system (Link)
  19. Guidehouse (2020) European Hydrogen Backbone (Link)
  1. European Commission (2022). Commission Staff Working Document, SWD (2022) 230 final, Implementing the REPowerEU Action Plan: Investment needs, hydrogen accelerator, and achieving the bio-methane targets (Link)
  2. Gas for Climate recently assesses the options the facilitate the 10 Mt import target by 2030. Gas for Climate (2022), Facilitating hydrogen imports from non-EU countries (Link)
  3. Gas for Climate (2019). The optimal role for gas in a net-zero emissions energy system (Link)
  4. EHB (2021) Analysing future demand, supply, and transport of hydrogen. (Link)
  5. Gas for Climate (2019). The optimal role for gas in a net-zero emissions energy system (Link)
  6. Gas for Climate (2019). Job creation by scaling up renewable gas in Europe. (Link)
  7. This is without accounting for additional measures such as energy efficiency and overall demand reduction.
  8. As the natural gas consumption is supposed to significantly decline by 2050, most of natural gas imports could be replaced by domestically produced biomethane.
  9. Part of the 666 TWh could be supplied by blue hydrogen, i.e. by applying carbon capture and storage technologies on hydrogen production from natural gas. Blue hydrogen could help to accelerate market and infrastructure development as a complementary measure to green hydrogen. However, blue hydrogen would not help with reducing natural gas import dependency of the EU
  10. EHB (2021) Analysing future demand, supply, and transport of hydrogen. (Link)
  11. Gas for Climate (2022) Biomethane production potentials in the EU. (Link)
    Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission network (Link)
  12. Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission network (Link)
  13. Gas for Climate (2022) Facilitating hydrogen imports from non-EU countries. (Link)
  14. Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission network (Link)
  15. Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission network (Link)
  16. Gas for Climate (2023). Assessing the benefits of a pan-European hydrogen transmission network (Link)

End-use decarbonization and energy system integration

Renewable gas can be massively scaled up by 2050. Biomethane should be allocated based on the highest societal value. Hydrogen will be used in hard-to-decarbonise sectors – in industry as feedstock and for high-temperature heating, in the building sector, in power system balancing on long-time scales (e.g. hydrogen peaking plants), and in mobility applications, either as hydrogen or hydrogen-based synthetic fuel (aviation, maritime, heavy-trucking). Hydrogen is a prime candidate to facilitate sector coupling and fits well into the efforts for increased electrification by providing long-term storage and possibly also dispatchable power generation.

Energy security of supply

A substantial part of the current gas imports from Russia (155 bcm in 2021) can be replaced by domestic biomethane production (35 bcm) and renewable hydrogen production and import (50 bcm) by 2030. At the European level, supply potential is sufficient to meet the demand for renewable gases at all time scales (2030, 2040, and 2050), subject to acceleration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) build-out beyond current targets. Individual regions might experience an abundance or lack of sufficient renewable energy and accelerated development of the European Hydrogen Backbone will help reconcile these differences can help to reconcile these differences.

Climate action and meeting climate goals

Gas for Climate fully supports the Fit for 55 package, aimed at a 55% reduction in European emissions by 2030 and the accelerated goals under REPowerEU. Gas for Climate also promotes a target 35 bcm of biomethane and 20 Mt of hydrogen in the European Union by 2030. Scaling up of renewable hydrogen (deployment of electrolysis) and biomethane (driven in large by sequential cropping) production is possible. Renewable gases are the solution in removing barriers to decarbonisation and creating the conditions for a more cost-effective transition. Policymakers are to adapt the European Union’s regulatory framework so that the production of renewable and low-carbon gases is incentivised, and gas infrastructure can fully unleash its great potential in a future integrated energy system.